“As with racial justice, as with climate change, when it comes to public health crises, cities tend to be on the frontlines,” said Nestor Davidson, the Albert A. Walsh Chair in Real Estate, Land Use, and Property Law and faculty director at the Urban Law Center.

Davidson said that one set of questions the Urban Law Center looks at, particularly in times of crisis like this, are those of authority and power.

“Who can act? Who is prevented from acting? What levels of government take responsibility for what kinds of things?” he said. “Even though it’s still early, one of the emerging lessons from the pandemic is that we have a system of federalism that isn’t necessarily as well-suited as it could be to responding to this kind of a crisis. We’ve had an incredibly fragmented response.”

Even though cities are often the first to grapple with “an issue like a pandemic, and it’s often where the effects of crises like this are felt most deeply,” Davidson said city leaders are sometimes challenged when it comes to their authority to act.

“We’ve had conflicts where cities have wanted to take more aggressive steps to protect public health, and you’ve had some states preventing that, and some states reversing course now,” he said.

Overcrowding vs. Density

Annika Hinze, Ph.D., director of Urban Studies at Fordham, said that while there’s no question New York City in particular was dramatically impacted by the pandemic, neighborhoods with overcrowding, or a high number of people per household, bore the brunt of the crisis more than those that are simply considered densely populated areas, containing high-rise, residential buildings.

Using data collected by the Furman Center at New York University, Hinze was able to analyze how different neighborhoods were impacted by the pandemic as well as the impact on certain demographic groups, such as those determined by race and economic status. She found that those in overcrowded situations, likemultiple people living in tight quarters, had higher rates of infection than those living in densely populated areas where overcrowding is not as common.

“The neighborhoods with the highest density in New York City had almost half of the infection rate of those with lower densities, meaning that Manhattan, which is the densest borough in the city, had the lowest infection rates of all five boroughs, and that the outer boroughs, especially Queens and the Bronx, had severely higher infection rates than Manhattan,” she said. “So housing density seems to not be the culprit with COVID-19 infection rates; it was overcrowding.”

Hinze has been working to analyze how overcrowding has contributed to the virus’s spread in other areas of the country. She’s been collecting data from Finney and Ford counties in Kansas, which are home to meatpacking plants, as well as data from Tulare and Kern counties in California, which are home to many agricultural workers. While she’s still collecting the Kansas data, the California data has shown that areas where workers live in tight quarters also have higher rates of infection.

“There was definitely a correlation between overcrowding in the census data and COVID-19 infection rates. Tulare and Kern counties, they’re among the most rural counties in California, yet they were as of June, number 8 and 11 respectively in the state for COVID-19 infections,” she said.

Social Distancing: ‘A Luxury Good’

One of the reasons why parts of cities with overcrowding have seen higher rates, according to Hinze, is because some of the best measures to combat COVID-19, including social distancing and easy access to hand washing, hand sanitizer, and other cleaning products, aren’t possible.

“I think social distancing in many ways is a luxury good, and maybe we’ve been talking about this too little as a country,” she said. “If we look at the numbers for New York City, [the highest number of cases]are in many poor and immigrant neighborhoods in Queens and in the Bronx where people don’t have, essentially, the luxury of social distancing.”

By contrast, some of the wealthiest city dwellers were able to take social distancing measures a step further and move out of the urban areas, at least temporarily, Davidson pointed out.

“Cities are great engines of growth and innovation and economic power and that’s become increasingly true as our society has kind of shifted in a post-industrial way,” he said. “At the same time, they’re places of great inequality, and again, something like a pandemic shines a very bright light on pre-existing inequality … certainly in a time when statistics show that, over time, more than 400,000 New Yorkers have left the city.”

The Cost of Leaving

Hugh Kelly, Ph.D., CRE, the chair of the Fordham Real Estate Institute, cautioned against people seeking “long-term” solutions, like moving, to “short-term” problems.

“If it made sense pre-COVID, then why wouldn’t you have done it pre-COVID?” he said.

While Kelly said that he expected the real estate market, particularly in cities, to take a hit in the near future due to social distancing and other public health guidance, he didn’t expect those trends to continue long-term.

“In the near-term, it’s clear that things like density, mass transit dependence, high-rise building forms are disadvantageous in the midst of the height of the pandemic,” he said. “For the short-term, metropolitan areas that are more sprawling, more low-rise, automobile-dependent, and have the ability to have the built-in equivalent of social distancing have the advantage and that’s probably the case for the next 12 months or so.”

Premature Predictions of the “Death of Cities”

But Kelly said that he believes that after we’ve adjusted to living with social distancing measures, or once effective treatments and vaccinations are available, the characteristics of cities that made them appealing in the first place will still be thee.

“The elements that have made for the most vibrant and the most successful cities … are going to reassert themselves,” he said. ‘The vibrancy that comes with businesses and people interacting with each other—that’s what promotes innovation. Innovation produces productivity and productivity produces profits and that’s what attracts businesses and people to places to work.”

Both Davidson and Kelly said they’ve seen the predictions that this will be the “death of cities” before, including after the 9/11 terrorists attacks at the World Trade Center.

This same round of articles was written after 9/11, Davidson said, noting that after the city rebounded, there were also conversations about too many people wanting to live there. And those are really problems as well. We have to think about housing affordability, and we have to think about unequal access to opportunity, and all the real challenges in cities that are successful.”

Looking Toward a Better Future

Cities won’t look exactly the same as they did before the pandemic, the professors said, as they tend to take something from each of the crises they endured.

Hinze said she hopes that policy makers see how crowded dwellings and other symptoms of inequality have been exacerbated by the pandemic, and that they look to address them in the future.

“It’s most important,” she said, to “make sure that people do not live in these conditions and to sort of provide them with enough of a social safety net so they can live in conditions that are safe,” she said.

Other aspects of life in the city will also likely see some major changes. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, for example, announced on Aug. 3 that the Open Restaurants initiative, which allows restaurants to take over certain streets and sidewalks for outdoor dining, will return next summer.

“You think about ways in which cities are repurposing public space, and taking advantage of a moment where cars haven’t been as dominant a part of the landscape at the local level. Maybe that means we’re going to have more walkable cities, maybe that means we’re going to have a greater embrace of the importance of public space,” Davidson said.

Kelly said from a real estate perspective, he could see offices refitting themselves to allow more space per employee, as well as apartments getting reconfigured to allow for some type of work-from-home model.

“There’s a sea change in that the square footage per employee, which has been going down for about 25 years, begins to reverse itself and becomes a larger space allocation,” he said.

He added that shared office spaces like WeWork will probably no longer appeal to people because social distancing would be too complicated.

Kelly pointed to one major sign he’s looking for to know that New York City has fully re-emerged—food trucks.

“When the food trucks are back on the street, people are coming back,” he said. “It means two things. That there are enough people coming into the central areas to support those food trucks and, even more, the food truck operators feel that they can do so safely.”

Plant-Based Meat. Garrett Broad, Ph.D., assistant professor of communication and media studies and author, More Than Just Food (University of California Press, 2016)

There has been tremendous growth in the plant-based food sector over the last several years, and there are a number of reasons why 2018 could be the biggest year yet for this emerging market. First and foremost, concerns about health, the environment, and animal welfare have led to increased public demand for plant-based alternatives to meat and animal products that are tasty, affordable, and convenient. At the same time, there has been an explosion of entrepreneurial initiative and innovation, as well as organizing and advocacy, in an effort to get these products in stores, restaurants, and other food service locations across the country and around the world. The meat industry has certainly taken notice—some companies are concerned about the threat that plant-based products represent to their bottom line, but others are actually investing in plant-based foods to get in on the action at this early stage.

Protest Demonstrations. Heather Gautney, Ph.D., associate professor of sociology and budget committee advisor to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

In 2018, look for large-scale demonstrations and targeted protest activity outside the White House and in the halls of the U.S. Capitol, especially over immigrants’ rights. Following last year’s Women’s March, there remains a core group of women activists who continue to organize. A few months ago they put on a large-scale conference, and have an ongoing, committed project of movement-building around women’s issues.

[And] there are lots of ways for people to protest besides tens of thousands of people assembling in the street. On immigration round-ups and the issue of sanctuary cities, I think there may be widespread local demonstrations and acts of mass disobedience—protecting people from being taken away. There are all sorts of micro forms of resistance that can take place within communities. When the health care debates were happening in Washington D.C., when demonstrators where showing up at town hall meetings and shaming their congressmen and senators, I think that made a substantial impact on what happened to the outcome.

Internet Service. Olivier Sylvain, associate professor of law and director, McGannon Center for Communications Research

Now that the Federal Communications Commission has repealed “network neutrality” regulations that prohibited internet service providers like Comcast and Verizon from privileging some content over others, we will all want to closely monitor the quality of our internet service.  The FCC Chairman claims that the prior rules made it difficult for providers to invest in novel new services.  Those rules, however, barred service providers from exploiting their coveted gatekeeping market position to discriminate against disruptive competitors; they prohibited, for example, providers from making it costlier for then-emergent start-ups–with names like Amazon and Netflix–to become market-makers in video distribution.

Now that network neutrality is gone, we should keep our eyes on the quality of video on Amazon and Netflix.  We should also watch for subscription fees increases for those services.

Mergers and Acquisitions. Sris Chatterjee, Ph.D., professor and chair of global security analysis finance and business economics, Gabelli School of Business

2017 has been a very good year for M&A. With the economy continuing to show strong fundamentals and the new tax law, 2018 is most likely to continue this upward trend in merger activity.

FinTech and digital technology represent a major disruptive force that will shape many mergers in 2018. We have already started to see this trend in 2017 when many companies across different industries outside the tech-sector acquired firms with the desired digital capabilities. This trend will also continue in 2018. Acquisition of American or European companies with an established brand name and market by firms in China, India and other non-Western countries has been another feature of M&A activity in recent times. This is also likely to continue.

These positive aspects of a stronger M&A outlook in 2018 need to be balanced against other factors that may have a restraining effect. The first factor that comes to mind is the effect of the U.S. government’s decision to block the AT&T-Time Warner merger. AT&T is fighting this decision in court and the outcome will have an important effect on M&A activity in 2018. The second factor to consider is that market multiples are already high, perhaps too high in light of meager growth. This, coupled with the high average premium that we witnessed in 2017, means that deals, on average, are going to be pricey.

Vatican Fashion. J. Patrick Hornbeck, Ph.D., associate professor of theology and department chair

Of late, the fashion world has been demonstrating increasing interest in things religious: consider, for instance, Alexander Wang’s 2016 show at St. Bartholomew’s Church on Park Avenue. But the Costume Institute of the Metropolitan Museum of Art will take this trend a step further with its 2018 exhibition, “Heavenly Bodies: Fashion and the Catholic Imagination.” The exhibition pairs liturgical and ceremonial vestments and artworks from the Met collection with designer garments inspired in some way by Catholicism. Traditionalist Catholic groups have sometimes responded with alarm to artistic displays that appear to mock or satirize their faith. The new Met exhibit (which opens in May) may encounter resistance from such quarters, but local Catholic leaders were consulted in the planning process. And the Vatican itself loaned more than 50 of the pieces that will be on display. In the end, the Met may more than anything else showcase the manifold ways in which the Catholic tradition continues to inspire artists of all stripes.

Historically Black Colleges and Universities. Shannon Waite, Ed.D., clinical assistant professor in the Graduate School of Education

In 2018, I predict that Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) will become more diverse and that the conversation will broaden from being focused on race and ethnicity to include socio-economic status.  I would pay attention to how the cuts to programs and initiatives that indirectly support HBCU’s and/or the students they serve impact the student’s access to higher education. I also expect the conversation about whether these institutions can continue to fulfill the role they have historically played and remain viable options for the demographic of students they traditionally serve to become more prominent.  I expect questions about whether HBCUs still have a place in our society today to become a part of the conversation that will spark a national debate.  Finally, I would pay attention to how the current administration responds to the criticism that the commitment made to bolster HBUCs has not been honored.

Bitcoin. Giacomo Santangelo, Ph.D., senior lecturer of economics

Much like international currencies, people trade Bitcoin to exploit arbitrage opportunities (buy low, sell high) in the market. However, today the bitcoin has more in common with Beanie Babies from the 1990s than with international currencies. The market for Bitcoin is being driven by speculation, not investment. Speculators buy an asset, often taking huge risks, in the hopes of making ’a quick buck.’ It would have been ill-advised to invest your retirement in Beanie Babies or Pokemon cards in the 1990s; although, at the time, you could make fast money buying/selling on eBay . . . until you couldn’t. Whether Bitcoin will eventually settle at $20k, $1 Million, or $1, the volatility of the recent weeks indicates that when speculators lose interest in Bitcoin, the bubble will burst. The bitcoin will only continue to have ‘value’ if people continue to believe it has value. At the moment, people have no rational reason to do so. It is unlikely Bitcoin will continue a meteoric rise, uninterrupted, in 2018.

Helicopter Parenting and Hovering. Rachel Annunziato, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology and head of Fordham’s Pediatric Psychology & Health Behaviors group

We are in an era where parenting styles—such as helicopter, or hovering— are raising concerns about our children’s ability to develop independence and advocate for themselves. Indeed, in the medical community during the last decade there has been a push for adolescents to learn early how to self-manage their special health care needs.

My colleagues and I have been studying this process among a large sample of adolescents from around the country. We found that adolescents who say they are self-managing (versus those having more parental involvement) and those who say they are doing more than their parents think they are, have worse outcomes. This includes difficulty managing their medications. These findings perhaps signal that for some adolescents, it is critical to work with their parents rather than move them into the background. So [going forward]maybe a little hovering is okay.

Real Estate’s Downward and Upward Trends. Hugh F. Kelly, Ph.D., special advisor to Fordham’s Real Estate Institute in the School for Professional and Continuing Studies

The 2018 outlook for commercial properties in New York is mixed. Tenant demand for office space is strengthening on the basis of strong job growth in finance and business/professional services. These job gains are timely, as a new generation of offices is coming to market in significant volume. Lateral movement amongst corporate users should continue, creating vacancy in some older buildings. But high prices and low cap rates will keep overall transactions on a downward trend.

In retailing, especially storefront properties on high-traffic avenues, vacancy is quite high, as asking rents have tended to exceed the price that can be economically supported by stores sales. I’d expect capitulation from landlords if that trend intensifies; low returns are better than no returns.

The residential market is sorting out an excess of luxury development while dealing with the ongoing crisis of affordability. As a result, multifamily construction in the outer boroughs may be 2018’s most significant trend.

(Patrick Verel, Tom Stoelker, and Tanisia Morris contributed to the article.)