But just how much do polls really matter?

We asked Fordham’s resident expert, Monika McDermott, Ph.D., a professor of political science who studies voting behavior, political psychology, and public opinion. She has been an election night analyst for CBS News since 2002 and works as a campaign and polling consultant in the U.S. and abroad. 

“Whether polling matters depends on the purpose for which people intend to use it,” she said. “For campaigns, political polling is extremely valuable in formulating messaging and determining weaknesses and strengths of the candidate.”

McDermott explained that some things pollsters ask about—such as issues and priorities—provide great insight into the race. But most media outlets choose to ignore those questions in favor of the electoral horse race: which candidate is ahead and by how many points. “For that purpose, polls aren’t great,” she said. 

How accurate are polls at predicting who will win?

Polls only provide a snapshot in time. The numbers are only good at the moment they’re measured. As we say in polling and elections, the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day. 

How do pollsters decide who to poll?

Polls used to be done using random samples of telephone numbers. Since the advent of cell phones, things have changed. Now, many polls are based on volunteer opt-in panels of respondents. So they only measure the opinions of people who have chosen to be included. This means that while polling can still approximate a “representative” sample of Americans, most polling no longer relies on the original statistical assumptions behind random sampling. That doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t good and useful, but it is a different animal.

How much do poll results influence campaign strategy?

In my experience, polling is extremely valuable in determining issue priorities and messaging for the candidate to best persuade the voters they need on their side. They can also point out weaknesses in an opponent’s campaigning and positions, which is also useful.

What are the gold standard surveys?

In my personal opinion, the most reliable surveys come from organizations that are trying to recruit their respondent pool based on random sampling. It’s a blend of old and new methods and avoids the purely opt-in effect. The National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, which does polling for the Associated Press, among other organizations, does this, and they are the closest to the pure science of sampling.

Campaign polls that use registered voter lists are actually also reliable, as they want to talk only to voters. Media organizations don’t do this because they frequently would rather be able to talk about the American public at large.

Why were the polls so wrong in 2016?

2016 was not the polling disaster that people like to think it was. The national polls were dead-on. [Hillary] Clinton won the popular vote (by a point or two, which was the prediction), which is all that national polls are designed to measure. They are not representative of the electoral college vote and that’s what decides the election.

The problem in 2016 came from estimates from state polls. State polls are notoriously hard to do. Only experts in that region know the ins and outs that are special to that state’s politics and electorates.

“One of the things that stood out to me about Tim is how his convictions on fighting for middle-class families run deep. It’s personal,” Harris wrote in an Instagram post announcing her choice of Walz.

Walz, 60, is a former high school teacher and football coach who served in the U.S. Army National Guard for 24 years. He also served as a congressman for six terms before running for governor in 2018. He is in his second term as governor after being reelected in 2022.

Doubling Down on ‘Weird’

Walz was the first to call the Republican candidates “weird”—a term that has taken off among Democrats in the campaign against former President Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, a U.S. senator.

Fordham experts agree that Walz should appeal to middle-class voters, and also say that popularizing “weird” probably helped his chances.

“Walz will add to the already increased excitement among the Democratic base, since he’s already been an effective spokesperson for the campaign introducing the ‘weird’ angle that Harris and other Democrats have doubled down on,” said Boris Heersink, Ph.D., associate professor of political science.

“Harris’s final list of vice-presidential options was a strong one and each of the candidates she was reportedly considering could have contributed something valuable to the ticket and in office. That being said, the selection of Walz to me seems like a smart choice,” Heersink added. “His record in Minnesota as governor includes a long list of policies that Democratic voters strongly support. And while Minnesota is not a swing state, he may appeal to middle and working-class voters in the Midwest.”

Jacob Smith, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science, said, ““He was not an initial favorite in the VP search, but got a lot of attention popularizing the line of Trump and the GOP being ‘weird.’ His ‘happy warrior’ style was likely appealing to Harris.”

Progressive Record

One group that was behind Walz early on was progressives, Smith said, despite him having a more moderate voting record in Congress that fit his moderate to right-leaning district. 

He has been more progressive during his governorship. For example, Minnesota passed laws supporting free school breakfast and lunch, universal background checks for guns, and legalized marijuana, Smith said.

Winning in Conservative Areas

Walz got his start in politics winning a seat in Congress in 2006. Smith said he was what is often known as a “wave baby”—he won in 2006 largely because of George W. Bush’s lack of popularity when a lot of Democrats without previous political experience won. The district he won was Republican-leaning. But Walz’s background as a teacher, football coach, National Guardsman, and rural Nebraska native may have held particular appeal to the small-town Midwest voters, he added.

“Walz survived a number of tough reelections in Congress and barely won reelection in 2016 as his seat shifted heavily towards Donald Trump. He has lots of experience winning tough reelections in conservative areas,” said Smith.

Walz would be the third Democratic vice president from Minnesota elected in relatively recent years after Hubert Humphrey in 1964 and Walter Mondale in 1976.

“It’s unprecedented. Kamala Harris would be the second person of color who ever served as president,” said Dr. Christina Greer, an associate professor of political science at Fordham University who is a regular commentator on cable news. “We’re one of the last democracies in the world [that’s] never elected a woman to the highest office. The silver lining is, even though it’s late in the game, it’s not too late. And it’s before the convention.”

Greer said that Harris will likely continue Biden’s radical attempts to relegate, reform, and abolish student loan debt, something that has actively changed the lives of millions of student borrowers. Some of Biden’s policies for higher education were more popular than others, so Greer added that Harris will have to thread the needle carefully when sharing the Biden administration successes while highlighting her own policies.

“This is a historic moment,” said Boris Heersink, associate professor of political science at Fordham. “There are no similar cases where an incumbent president in the modern era had every intention to run for reelection, won the delegates necessary to get nominated, but was effectively forced out.”

Pressure mounted for Biden, 81, to step aside after his June 27 debate performance, which many called “disastrous,” and raised doubts about his fitness for office only four months before the election. Since then, dozens of prominent Democrats have pressed him to withdraw so they could nominate a candidate who would fare better against former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. But as late as Friday, Biden continued to insist that he would stay in the race.

Heersink said the campaign to oust Biden was “not just because of one bad debate but because that debate confirmed a lot of preexisting views of his age and fueled a growing frustration among many that this current generation of politicians refuses to step aside.”

Avoiding a ‘Free-for-All’

It remains to be seen, however, if the party leadership will back Harris for the nomination, and reports of division among Democrats are already surfacing.

“The delegates that were elected during the primaries this past spring will need to vote, and they theoretically are free to vote for whoever they want,” Heersink said. “However, it seems likely to me that Biden and other party leaders will want to avoid this becoming a free-for-all.

“While Biden stepping aside obviously adds considerable confusion to the race, it does also provide Democrats with the opportunity to put together a ticket that will excite people in their base and make not just the case that voters need to reject Trump, but that there also is a positive argument for voting for the Democrats in November,” said Heersink.

Christina Greer, associate professor of political science, said, “It’s historic, complicated, and not yet decided. Chicago will bring much to light, and luckily for Dems, Biden decided to make this decision before the convention.”

‘Sighing With Relief’

Jacob Smith, assistant professor of political science at Fordham, said, “I think a lot of Dems are sighing with relief today.” He added, “Also, the behind-the-scenes action once again shows nobody should bet against Nancy Pelosi.”

“I think enthusiasm among younger voters will be higher [for Harris],” said Smith. “While incumbents usually have an edge, the age issue was just going to dominate the fall campaign for Joe Biden. Harris won’t have that baggage.”

If Democrats choose another nominee, however, it would “ignore the crucial role of Black voters in the Democratic Party in addition to being pretty rude to Harris as the sitting VP,” Smith said. “Everyone will need to be vigilant against racism and sexism, but I do believe that Harris is the stronger candidate and that is why President Biden ultimately stepped aside.”

Heersink said, “A majority of voters has very consistently indicated that they do not want Trump to be president again. But a majority of voters also believed Biden was incapable of executing the job for another term. Trump is still the Republican nominee, but Democrats now have the space to overcome the major obstacles to a victory in November.”

“Americans can and should have confidence in our election system,” Wray said. “And none of the election interference efforts that we’ve seen put at jeopardy the integrity of the vote count itself in any material ways. And so in that sense, people can have confidence.” 

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t threats to the election process, he said, particularly highlighting foreign governments’ desire to meddle. 

“The other part, though, is the chaos, and the ability to generate chaos is very much part of the playbook that some of the foreign adversaries engage in,” Wray said. “And there is the potential. If we’re not all collectively on board, that chaos can ensue to varying levels.”

Wray and Nakasone spoke in a fireside chat moderated by Mary Louise Kelly, host of NPR’s All Things Considered, at the 10th International Conference on Cyber Security, held at Fordham on Jan. 9. Kelly asked how 2024 compares to the 2020 election year.

“Every election as you know is critical infrastructure,” Nakasone said. “We have to be able to deliver a safe and secure outcome. And so when I look at it, I look in terms of both the threat and the technology—but yes, it’s an important year, it’s a presidential election year, and we have adversaries that want to take action.”

Protecting America’s AI Innovation 

Nakasone said that as they look at foreign adversaries and how they are using AI, he noticed that they “are all using U.S. AI models, which tells me that the best AI models are made by U.S companies.” 

“That tells me that we need to protect that competitive advantage of our nation, of our national economy going forward,” he said. 

But that’s not an easy task, Wray added, noting China’s advantage in particular.

“China has a bigger hacking program than that of every other major nation combined and has stolen more of Americans’ personal and corporate data than every nation, big or small, combined,” he said. “If I took the FBI’s cyber personnel and I said, ‘Forget ransomware, forget Russia, forget Iran—we’ll do nothing but China,’ we would be outnumbered 50 to 1, and that’s probably a conservative estimate.” 

Nakasone said that’s why it’s important for the agencies to maintain the United States’ “qualitative advantage.”

“How do we ensure that our workforce is continuing to be incredibly productive?” he said.

Combatting Foreign Adversaries 

In addition to China, Wray and Nakasone highlighted Russia and Iran as threats, even as Russia is occupied with the war in Ukraine. 

“If anything, you could make the argument that their focus on Ukraine has increased their desire to focus on trying to shape what we look like, and how we think about issues because U.S. policy on Ukraine is something that obviously matters deeply to their utterly unprovoked and outrageous invasion of Ukraine,” Wray said.  

In order to combat their efforts to interfere in elections, Nakasone highlighted partnerships between agencies like the NSA and FBI, and the quality of work that U.S. agencies do.

“It will never be having the most people—it’s having the best people and the best partnership being able to develop and deliver outcomes that can address adversaries,” he said.

Calling Out Misinformation and Disruptions

Kelly highlighted a recent poll from The Washington Post that found that one-third of Americans believe that President Joe Biden’s win in 2020 was illegitimate and that a quarter of Americans believe that the FBI instigated the January 6 insurrection. 

“I’m not trying to drag either of you into politics,” she said. “But what kind of charge does that pose for your agencies as you try to navigate this year?”

Wray said it’s important for the NSA and FBI to call out misinformation right away. He highlighted how in October 2020, the FBI called out Iran’s interference efforts ahead of the November elections in an effort to make the messaging less effective.

“We have to call it out when we see it, but we also need in general for the American people, as a whole, to become more thoughtful and discerning consumers of information,” he said. 

The Use of Section 702: ‘A Vital Tool’

In December 2023, Congress gave a four-month extension to Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which allows intelligence agencies to conduct surveillance on non-American citizens who are outside of the United States without a warrant. The section has come under scrutiny as privacy advocates and members of both parties said it’s an overreach of government powers.

Nakasone called it “the most important authority we use day in and day out in the National Security Agency to protect Americans.”

He said that the agency uses it to address a number of different threats: “whether or not that’s fentanyl or Chinese precursors [to fentanyl]coming in United States, whether or not it’s hostages that foreigners take overseas, whether or not it’s cybersecurity, in terms of victims that we’re seeing in the United States.” 

Wray said that the section was “a vital tool.”

“This country would be reckless at best and dangerous at worst to blind ourselves and not reauthorize the authority in a way that allows us to protect Americans from these foreign threats,” he said.